HOLDING OUR BREATH

Advising against holding one’s breath is sensible, not least to avoid the terminal consequences. 

Metaphorically speaking, however, there is no more topical context for the expression than the current status of COVID-19 in our country. A state of suspended animation; and making predictions would be very unwise.
But since it has had such a devastating impact on the world it is perhaps valuable to reflect on where we are now. We know that we had a first wave in 2020, and a more severe second wave at the end of that year. Now where is the third wave, so emphatically predicted? There are so many different views on what wave we’re on, what if anything is coming, and whether this or that vaccine is of acceptable validity; and, perhaps above all, when this pandemic will end.

Infectious

There are, nevertheless, two pieces of plausibly robust opinion. Firstly, whatever wave we are in, or is waiting around the corner, is intrinsically more infectious than its predecessor(s), though the alleged inevitability of resultant higher infection rates is not, in my view, convincing. And, secondly, the only way to subdue COVID-19 effectively is through herd immunity; and our vaccination programme is taking us very slowly there.
Correction, the vaccination programme was taking us there. The efficacy of global programmes varies enormously. The imminent delay in our own halfway-house programme looks pretty pathetic though it’s not actually our fault. A major vaccine-producing country needs the vaccine urgently to deal with its own rampant surge in infections; we can’t really blame them for putting their own people first, but how sad that Eswatini is so dependent on handouts.

If we’d made better use of our resources and opportunities we wouldn’t need the offertory dish. Wealthy countries placed their vaccination orders up front, taking the risk of wasting their money; we couldn’t do that. Will it always be like this; last into the lifeboats because we’re always broke? One potentially disappointing aspect of the global vaccination programmes is that countries with high vaccination rates may be even more protective of their borders.

Inequitable

Vaccination certificates or passports are being seen as divisive and inequitable. Unlimited use, when waving them around in shops and cinemas, would certainly be so, but surely not for travel across borders? On the other hand vaccination prevents you from getting a serious dose of COVID-19 but may not stop you carrying it; the jury’s still out on that one. Let’s find a bright side. Almost five weeks into our lockdown-lift, the infection rate has remained low; and dropping big-time! Nil on both April 19 and yesterday, from over 1 500 tests! That’s massively encouraging. The problem is that we have to hold our breath because we don’t know conclusively why we’re getting this amazing outcome; and how long we have to continue expecting the ‘third wave’. Perhaps it’s already here. South Africa doesn’t know and we don’t know.  

Regardless of whether you’re a third-waver or non-third-waver, surely you are asking the question – what are the statistics of the past five weeks telling us? They are saying you have had children at school, alcohol legally available (and, very regrettably, a booming illegal supply network) and church gatherings allowed; plus the ‘festive’ of Easter, with people travelling. The alleged super-spreading that the sceptics claimed would arise has simply not happened. And don’t for one minute think it’s because everyone is masking up and distancing meticulously. Outside city centres we see far less proper mask-wearing than before, and among all ages. It’s in schools where strictness dominates. A few school-children have been getting COVID-19 but in minute numbers and only light doses, probably contracted outside school, yet out in the wider world we are seeing serious ‘third waves’. In one Eastern country the devastating deterioration of recent days is almost certainly the result of extensively unmasked gatherings; and widely publicised.

Inevitable

I suggest again that the path of the infection rates is determined more by human behaviour and degree of congestion in living conditions than the infectiousness of the variant. We have a lot more living space and, in that respect, are very fortunate. In short, we don’t know whether we have, or will get the so-called inevitable third wave, nor how long we have to worry about it. What we do know is that in the present conditions, the theory that schools, alcohol availability and church-gatherings are super-spreaders is not remotely valid. The figures prove the point though they provide no explanation. Vaccination is not the reason; could it be a degree of herd immunity, with thousands having had the virus lightly without knowing it, owing to limited testing facilities? And, therefore, not in the statistics? Wouldn’t that be brilliant! But I, like everyone else, have no idea; just very grateful for the time being.

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