INTELLIGENT BUT ARTIFICIAL

Last week we talked in fairly broad terms about the employment prospects, around 2050, for that allegedly obsolescing member of Planet Earth - the human being. One school of thought expects machines to replace humans at the workplace, resulting in mass unemployment in 30 years’ time. Artificial intelligence – ‘AI’ – would be what takes over, with more serious implications for mankind than in the late 1800s, after the Industrial Revolution, when the motor vehicle replaced the horse-drawn cart. It was the horse that was cast aside, but with the self-drive vehicle it will be the turn of the driver to depart the workplace.

AI is being developed at an amazing rate, not only in the physical functions of work but also in the thinking – the cognitive – side of human behaviour. We humans have been ‘entered’ by our scientists, albeit with generally the best of intentions. They’ve broken into the life and social sciences; identifying that our decisions are made from the many neurons in our brains calculating probabilities – for example regarding careless pedestrians and erratic drivers. By identifying patterns of behaviour, AI can even perform better than humans in the area of intuition, such as understanding how others are thinking, through biochemical analysis of facial expressions. It will even, one day, be able to switch on the music that fits the mood it sees in your mind.

Imagine the potential for doing with machines what is impossible with humans owing to the latter being ever different in ability and behaviour. Visualise how all the self-drive vehicles might be brought into an integrated network, and programmed to behave in the same way as they approach a junction or how they absorb and adhere to the latest traffic regulations. Think of the reduction in traffic accidents and similar drop in rescue activities and hospital care required; jobs lost there but lives saved. More than 90 per cent of road accidents are caused by human error.

Replaced

So there is clearly a place for AI. But the human being can never be entirely replaced in the work environment, for the first simple reason that there are functions that can never be done effectively by AI. I came across the proposal that AI doctors could introduce a massive additional benefit to people of the world. You could have eight billion AI doctors – one for each person - updated immediately with all the latest medical information. Individuals could have access to several AI doctors and be able to take a view on the advice given.

But, what we’d miss of course is the ‘bedside manner’ of our local GP; the dialogue, with the analysis and reassurance addressing the patient’s concerns. Even more so with the nurses, responding physically to the varying needs of each patient, and thus demanding motor and emotional skills that a machine will never deliver. Care of the elderly might would become one of the growth sectors.

In a country like Eswatini you see security personnel at huge numbers of offices and residential establishments. A machine can open and close gates automatically in response to vehicle movements but cannot respond to a passer-by, resident or otherwise, tripping over a dog. Supermarkets in the first world allow the customer to process purchases through an automated cash till. Yes, staff numbers will fall but customers want to get the full shopping experience. There’ll always be demand for some staff; guiding and advising customers; with product planning and display creating new jobs.

Online

Will AI education technology take over from face-to-face schooling? Well, we got a taste of online schooling in COVID-19 and you’ll very rarely see a child flourishing more from that, than from the personal contribution of the inspired, committed teacher, creating interest and even passion for the chosen subjects. And consider the student’s personal and social development from interaction with peers.

In short, AI can take over much human activity, especially in the workplace; but not all. And would we want it to? Of course not. Some work activities such as electricity distribution demand comprehensive automation; perhaps AI will develop that further. But remind yourself what it feels like when power supply fails; the frustration of being so hopelessly dependent on technology you cannot address.

The smartphone will one day allow you to lie there lazily on your couch, pressing a button for the garage door to open, with the self-drive car reversing out and travelling to the supermarket for the week’s groceries; while you lie there ramping up the cholesterol. Imagine the pizza man with his obsolete bike gazing wistfully at a future scene where AI itself organises the entire function without the ‘couch potato’ even having to press any buttons; but the heart giving up at age 40. No, homo sapiens (male and female) will realise there is healthy pleasure to be gained from non-automation; in walking to the shop, checking the oil level in the car, turning up at school. Western governments may even slow AI progress down to keep people happier.

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