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COMING IN FROM THE COLD

15/06/2023 08:06:00 Chris Morgan

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On May 25, 2023, at the Eswatini Energy Indaba 2023, the people of Eswatini received an announcement that there would be systematic load-shedding of electricity across the country this winter. That is cause for considerable concern.

It was a little unfortunate therefore – and we hope it was just a moment of journalistic mischief – that one of only four photos of the event showed two of our Cabinet ministers laughing their heads off. It made you wonder whether that was the style of the event and that they, among others, were not taking the power issue seriously. Another happy photo appeared in the Standard Bank self-congratulatory double-pager two weeks later.The power supply projections have serious implications for Eswatini, its people and the economy, reflecting the impact of a heavy dependency on other nations that should never be there today. Years of potential foreign direct mining and power generation investment falling away under the ineffective oversight of those entrusted to take this country to energy self-sufficiency, have left us 70 per cent dependent on supplies from outside. What does that say? Years of wasted opportunities. The Eco-Warriors will, of course, reflect with gratitude on that, because it left Eswatini producing very little thermal energy.

Meanwhile, we have electricity supply deals with outside agencies, mainly with Eskom, the South African giant electricity supplier, to sell us power until December 31, 2024. And then what? It was said at the indaba that there is a reasonable chance of Eskom continuing with a new power supply agreement thereafter. But the people of South Africa (SA) have been very unhappy about having a vastly inferior quality of power delivery compared with their little next door neighbour. Charity begins at home. We should not be too optimistic about the post-2025 deal with Eskom in respect of supply and price. One thing is certain: If and when SA does renew the supply agreement, it will not place its own people at a disadvantage compared to the occupants of Eswatini, in the way it has done for some years. It would be revolution time if they failed again on that one.

Load-shedding

The media reported the indaba 2023 event as having talked only about projected power supply through the cold season. And the projections are grim, with the SA power grid showing a major declining trend into the depths of winter, with a push to Stage 7 load-shedding becoming increasingly likely. That’s approaching 50 per cent power outage in any day. And then, what will happen after winter? Will we be expected to match the load-shedding in SA, which has continued for years, regardless of season; sometimes as much as 10 hours a day? That question, surely emerging loudly in everyone’s mind – when they weren’t laughing – was not answered. You see, we aren’t just talking here about the direct impact on the individual consumer during the damaging impact of extended periods of load-shedding. More serious is the effect on industrial, agricultural and commercial activity, as well as on potential foreign direct investment in industry and commerce. Faster economic growth is how Eswatini’s wealth will be created. That won’t happen if power supply is sporadic. The predictability of systematic load-shedding will be scant consolation.

It’s far too near the crisis point to be dwelling on how SA got into this mess in the first place. It appears to be a combination of poor infrastructure maintenance and a number of areas of corrupt activity, and the absence of full accountability, with compensation limited to the licking of wounds. Of vital importance now is to gain an understanding of power supply into the medium and long-term. With SA creaking miserably from the disastrous management of its resources and technology, it is now attempting the hugely challenging task of a steady replacement of coal-fired with renewable energy – mainly wind, solar and hydro – while trying to restore the ability to meet peak demand.Perhaps more worrying than what was said at the indaba, was what was not said; especially about the power supply future for Eswatini. All we hear about is strategy after strategy, plan after plan, note after note of actual and planned bits and pieces of renewable energy. Credit is due for the achievements so far, but we need a matrix blasted over the front pages of the print media, showing peak demand in the coming months and years beyond January 1, 2025.

And against each statistic, the total of guaranteed power supply, disaggregated into guaranteed generating units; as well as supplementary plans to meet the shortfalls domestically. And where there’s seen to be a shortage of power supply, then how this will be sourced from outside Eswatini, and whether that supply is tied to a rock-solid agreement. It was said, three years ago, by a high-level representative of government, that Eswatini would be self-sufficient by 2025. Frankly, that’s going from one form of darkness to another. Meanwhile, government must be very careful, when assuring potential investors of no power difficulties in the years to come, that such guarantees are backed up by robust detail, and are not just pie in the sky.