WHICH SONG WILL VOTERS BELT OUT?

With the unprecedentedly high voter registration turnout, what message do voters want to send in the 2023 National General Elections? For the record, as stated by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC), almost 90 per cent of eligible voters have registered for the much-anticipated elections. Now, the big question is: Will all these registered voters turn-up on voting day?

The Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEAL) explains voter turnout as the extent to which eligible voters use their vote on election day. The vote speaks on behalf of the voters. The more voters turnout, the more amplified is the voice. Voter turnout is regarded as one of the crucial indicators of how citizens participate in the governance of their country. A higher voter turnout is in most cases considered a sign of the vitality of democracy; a lower voter turnout, on the other hand, is usually associated with voter apathy and mistrust of a country’s political process.

There is a school of thought that believes that the high voter registration will not translate into high voter turnout. This is the school that thinks the voters have been coerced into registering, lest they stand to lose access to different forms of government assistance or services. Personally, I don’t buy this thought. But, I might be wrong. So, I wait for the day everyone heads to the poll. I have been made to believe that the registered voters comprise of a significant number of young people. A compatriot told me that the general view of voters is that they want representatives who are grounded and focused, not rabble-rousers.

Monthly

The Britannica Dictionary describes a rabble-rouser as a person who makes a group of people angry, excited, or violent (such as by giving speeches) especially in order to achieve a political or social goal. Solomon Andhil Fineberg, writing for Commentary – a monthly magazine of opinion, said this about such persons: “The rabble-rouser is altogether dependent upon hate-mongering for public attention and support.  It is his whole stock-in-trade. Publicity is not merely incense in his nostrils—it is his very life-blood.” The compatriot I spoke to said the Eswatini voters, who have registered in droves, do not want such persons as their political representatives, at least for now.

That is his opinion, and he’s entitled to it; he might be wrong as well. He also opined on how he sees this year’s vote – many of the incumbents will be booted out. His opinion is based on personal experiences and the history of the elections locally, particularly over the past two polls (2013 and 2018). He pointed out that in the 2018 elections, for the Hhohho Region, only three Members of Parliamentwere able to retain their positions in Parliament.
These were Maphalaleni Inkhundla’s Mabulala Maseko, Ntfonjeni Inkhundla’s Sompisi Magagula and Pigg’s Peak Inkhundla’s Jabulani Mabuza. The rest were voted out.

In the Manzini Region, there were only two MPs who were voted back and these were; Lobamba Lomdzala Constituency’s Marwick Khumalo and Moses Vilakati from Ntondozi Constituency. For the Shiselweni Region, it was only Mduduzi ‘Small Joe’ Dlamini from Maseyisini Constituency who was voted back. The same happened in the Lubombo Region as only Phila Buthelezi from Matsanjeni North Constituency.

Beating

From these figures, it means that out of 56 Mps only seven were voted back, which reflects a retention rate of 12.5 per cent; and a rejection rate of 87.5 per cent. For the voters to have rejected such a high number of their representatives was quite astounding. Those who were retained are political powerhouses in their constituencies.Marwick Khumalo is the longest serving member of the House and holds political clout even internationally. He is a revered politician and his constituents have always been known to adore him wand the work he does for them.

There is still no one who has been seen as having the potential of beating him in the elections, which is why even this year there will be an anxious wait to see who will accept the nomination to bid to oust him. Moses Vilakati is also known to have a strong following in his constituency and his being appointed Cabinet minister raised his political profile such that the constituents opted to re-elect him. Now that he has reached his two-term limit as Cabinet minister, one can only wait to see if he is willing to be elected back into Parliament where he will be a back bencher.

Mabulala Maseko from Maphalaleni is also regarded as a powerhouse at his constituency where he has been given credit for, among other things, facilitating electricity and water provision schemes. That is where the ‘Bakhanyisele Mabulala’ and ‘Banatsise Mabulala’ come from. He has now been appointed Cabinet minister, which will believably strengthen his influence within the Maphalaleni area.

Elections

There is Jabulani Mabuza, popularly known as ‘Buy Cash’, who has also held the Pigg’s Peak Constituency for the past 10 years, when he first ousted Hlobisile Ndlovu in the 2013 elections. One will have to wait and see if there will be a worthy candidate who will be nominated to try and unseat Mabuza, who is a known successful businessman. Whoever will attempt to take him on should also have deep pockets. Mabuza will go into the elections with an added sympathy card resulting from the damage he suffered during the political unrest when some of his hardware stores were burnt down. He too will be a back bencher if his constituents decide to keep their faith in him. Phila Buthelezi has also proven in the past two elections that his political profile has risen.

He is now also a Cabinet minister. But the 2023 elections will probably be the toughest he has had to contest. Sompisi Magagula from Ntfonjeni is also a businessman who has held his own weight in his constituency and has proved to be a popular character there. So is Mduduzi ‘Small Joe’ Dlamini who has represented the Maseyisini people for three terms now, the latter one being as a back bencher after he too was barred for re-appointment by the two-term limit.

It is clear, therefore, that the seven MPs who were retained are quite strong characters and the voters chose to keep their trust in them. Now we wait to see what will happen this year. There is already word out there that some of the current MPs might decide not to contest because the political terrain does not look suitable for them. As to who those MPs are, we shall wait and see.

Voice

One thing is for sure – voters, as always, will have the final say. What do the voters want? Who do they think will be their voice in getting what they want? Certainly, what they want cannot revolve around a single issue. Which is why my gut feeling is that the high voter registration numbers depicts a society that has a number of issues it wants addressed and they feel the starting point is to play a part in choosing who they believe is best suitable to do that for them. Who are those suited for the task ahead? Do those individuals care for the people? Are those individuals not rouble-rousers? James Traub, a columnist and contributor at foreignpolicy.com and the author of ‘John Quincy Adams: Militant Spirit’, once wrote: “Cynics can reduce a crowd to a mob. But politicians with principles and courage can help citizens recover their own noblest convictions.” The ball is in the citizens’ court.

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