POLITICS IS ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS

What should one make of the throngs of people who, on one of the coldest days this winter season, heeded the King’s call and attended Sibaya at the Ludzidzini Cattle Byre this past Tuesday?

This, surely, was one of the biggest Sibaya attendances the country has seen. In the Eswatini context, Sibaya holds political significance – for it is the highest policy and advisory council (libandla) of the nation. Not only that, it is also where the views of the nation on pressing and controversial national issues are presented. This is the forum for the-powers-that-be to demonstrate, or rather test, their political clout. Usman Usman, in an opinion piece he wrote for the Blueprint newspapers on July 6, 2021, said politics is a game of numbers.

“The number of people or followers clinging to a personality determines his influence and popularity in the society he lives in. In a political game, like all games world over, no one likes to play and lose; for it is said, a winner has many fathers, but a loser is an orphan,” he wrote.  In the Western world, opinion polls to measure the popularity, performance or approval of people holding leadership positions. Even heads of State are subjected to opinion polls. For instance, in the United States (US), a presidential approval rating is used to measure a president’s job execution.

ABC News Political Director Rick Klein was asked what this number actually represents and his response was: “Presidential approval rating is a snapshot. It’s a poll where individuals are asked to give their sense of whether they approve or disapprove of a president’s job performance.” A presidential approval rating is considered a simple measure, yet a very powerful one that has played a key role in politics for over 70 years.

Approval

Data agency Gallup has what is known as the ‘Presidential Approval Centre’ where the public’s view of the U.S. president’s job performance at a particular point in time is measured. In Eswatini though, there is no such form of measurement. Instead, the numbers that heed the King’s summon is what has become the unofficial approval rating. The numbers that show up during national events such as the Umhlanga Reed Dance, Incwala, Lusekwane, Buganu and, of course, Sibaya, are always looked at in tandem with the public’s support and approval of the Monarch.

It is for this reason, therefore, that during the political unrest, every strategy was engaged by the mass democratic movement to not only demonise such events but to also intimidate and threaten people against attending. That is because the lesser the people in attendance, the more it would appear the King has lost support; and the more it would also appear the King is no longer wanted in power. This strategy though has failed to stick. These events managed to attract large numbers even in the midst of the threats and intimidation. Even the international media has not succeeded in portraying the King as an unpopular leader. Such attempts have always fallen short. In May 16, 2012, the Voice of Africa (VOA) published an article on a poll that purported His Majesty to be the least popular leader in Africa.

The story contradicted itself though because one of the people they interviewed, veteran political activist Mphandlana Shongwe, was quoted saying: “You will find that on the ground, the people still like King Mswati III. But, the problem is his government is not delivering to these people.”
Government Spokesperson at the time, Percy Simelane, who is now the King’s Office Director of Communications, ridiculed the poll results and likened it to someone coming to you and saying seven of your girlfriends say they no longer love you.

“What assurance do you have that I am not telling you all this because I want your girlfriends for myself,” he said. At the height of the political unrest in July 2021, His Majesty the King summoned Sibaya for purposes of addressing the situation and to also appoint the prime minister.
Tension was in the air. There was anger from the mass democratic movement. They felt calling Sibaya at a time when they wanted political dialogue was an insult to them. They lobbied and also threatened with violence those who would attend the Sibaya. But still, given the prevailing situation, there was quite a reasonable number of emaSwati who attended that Sibaya. There was then a numbers war between the mass democratic movement and those in support of the status quo. One faction said the Sibaya was poorly attended, the other said the attendance was good, considering the threats that were flying all over the country against those who wanted to attend.

When the Umhlanga Reed Dance came, there were similar threats and there was subsequently a war on numbers. The situation was not different when the time for Incwala, the most sacred of all the cultural ceremonies, came.Despite the threats and intimidation, the numbers that showed up for these events were still impressively high. Government strengthened its press and communications office to counter the narratives that were meant to eat into the numbers that supported the Monarch and the institution of the monarchy. It worked. Propaganda was met with counter information. This resulted in those who had started to distance themselves from the Monarch and monarchy to come closer again.

Developments

Some of those who had rebelled also changed stance. As Economist John Maynard Keynes said that when the facts changed, he changed his mind. Many emaSwati appear to have changed their mind from what they had become as a result of the political developments over the last two years.
The latest Sibaya attests to this. The numbers that attended filled the Cattle Byre, which has itself been extended hence its carrying capacity is now much higher, were so impressive such that every inch of the grass was occupied. But still, there has been a war of numbers. Despite the thousands of people who attended, some still believe these numbers were not enough hence they are, to this day, continuing to punch their calculators to try and find tamper with the indisputable. They know how much numbers matter. 

  The fact that the Holy Bible has a whole book on Numbers points to the significance of numerals. The name ‘Numbers’ is a translation of Arithmoi, from the Septuagint, titled thus because the book contains many statistics, population counts, tribal and priestly figures, and other numerical data. Numbers takes the reader on a long and winding path through a desert of excruciating detail. The book records census results for all twelve tribes not once, but twice; it documents priestly instructions for handling the Ark of the Covenant and the tabernacle; and it even spells out the placement of the tribes when they camped. The book’s authorship is attributed to Moses, the man who led the Israelites out of slavery in Egypt.

Divisions

In Numbers 1 verses 1 to 3, it reads: “The Lord spoke to Moses in the tent of meeting in the Desert of Sinai on the first day of the second month of the second year after the Israelites came out of Egypt. Take a census of the whole Israelite community by their clans and families, listing every man by name, one by one. You and Aaron are to count according to their divisions all the men in Israel who are 20 years old or more and able to serve in the army.”

So the Lord displayed to Moses something that still rings true today and will do so forever, because the Bible states that everything shall pass away but God’s words shall not pass away, that numerals are  key determinant of decision-making. It is for this reason that I wonder why Dominic Kunene, the senior national soccer team Sihlangu coach, has still not been sacked. The numbers are against him, therefore, he should have long been shown the exit door. But that’s a story for another day.

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