EFF GOVT BAD NEWS FOR ESWATINI

The South Africa (SA) elections have finally arrived.

Tomorrow South Africans go to the polls to elect a new political party or, in this case, a political party coalition that will form a government. The African National Congress (ANC) is under unprecedented pressure to retain its parliamentary majority in Africa’s most advanced country. Having seen its popularity steadily decline over the past two decades, tomorrow’s elections could be a landmark moment when the party, once led by Nelson Mandela, drops below 50 per cent of the national vote for the first time, although it’s still widely expected to win the largest share.

Let us just imagine that the ANC does indeed fall drastically below the 50 per cent, say 30 per cent. Let us again imagine that they decide to bring all their lost children back home in the form of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party and Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party to form a coalition that will form the government. They would have the two-thirds majority needed to change the Constitution. Now note that there are only two things that have been stopping the ANC from becoming a single authoritarian party (I will explain what that is in a moment). The first thing is the Constitution and the second is simply the intent. Jacob Zuma, Julius Malema and the radical economic transformation faction within the ANC have been calling for the amendment of the Constitution, which will give them full power. With the Constitution out of the way, this coalition will become a very powerful single authoritarian party regime.   

Single-party authoritarianism

Single-party regimes are led by a hegemonic group with a strong grip on power. Although only one leader is officially in charge, many political elites must work together to form and execute governmental policies. Classic examples of single-party rulers include the Chinese Communist Party, the Vietnamese Communist Party, and the People’s Action Party of Singapore. Studies have noted that single-party systems tend to perform much better in terms of economic growth and development than personalistic or military-junta systems, as can be seen in China, Vietnam and Singapore. There is less opposition interference and more constitutional manipulation. The ANC is slowly renewing itself but not in the way its present President, Cyril Ramaposa, is promoting. Malema left the ANC, taking the youth wing, and formed the EFF after serious disagreements with the older generation. They have grown to be a formidable force outside the ANC, capturing the hearts of the youth who have no memory of the struggle days and heroes. The EFF has taken all the universities and other institutions of higher learning. Outside of the ANC they grew up and had to raise money on their own, organise campaigns and manage their affairs. They are now ready to govern. Their leader, Malema, is a charismatic individual who, unfortunately, has authoritarian tendencies.  

Umkhonto Wesizwe

On the other hand, we have the newly-formed Umkhonto Wesizwe, which, in my opinion, is an old political party that was just waiting to be formed. That is the only way a political party formed five months ago can achieve what the polls are saying. What is happening is that inasmuch as Malema is pushing the youth agenda, Zuma is pushing the African traditional cultural ethos agenda, which seems to have fallen by the wayside within the ANC. Both talk of taking land without compensation but are different in their approach. Malema will simply nationalise the land and put it under government ownership before distributing it to citizens. It sounds more like the late Robert Mugabe’s style. On the other hand, Zuma will return that land to traditional leaders who will redistribute it the African way.

Roman-Dutch Law is another big issue for Zuma and his followers. The fact that African amakhosi and traditional leaders have no power in the Constitution is a big problem for them. Magistrates and councillors are more powerful than kings. It would appear that the Constitution favours LGBQ+ laws, including same-sex marriages (which are foreign to Africans), more than polygamy-related laws. The MK Party’s faithful are appalled at the fact that a female child can be appointed as a king after the death of her father. While western political and human rights activists say it’s the best Constitution with gender equality, they contend that this is just not African. They believe it is destroying African culture and traditions. Die-hard ANC loyalists who were unhappy with many of the new policies and laws that were adopted by their political party simply decided to stay at home and not vote. The MK then represented the closest thing to their home, the ANC, and the belief is that they will come out in numbers tomorrow to vote for the MK.

What does all this mean for Eswatini?

SA is a Republic and traditionally republics and monarchies do not mix. The Kingdom of Eswatini can be called a form of Monarchical regime. Uniquely, only the Middle East remains monarchical as ours. Of course, our King has named it Monarchial Democracy, but it remains to a large extent a form of authoritarian regime. By definition, monarchies are led by a king or queen with a ruling family and operate in ways similar to those of a single-party regime, with many individuals participating in the discussion, consultation and decision-making processes. For this reason, the policy output of monarchies has tended to be predictable, making monarchies – like single-party regimes – one of the most durable forms of rule. Constitutional monarchies with constitutions that have the Bill of Rights and some form of elective representation have done even better, but without the election of the Executive by the people in whatever way, they remain authoritarian.   

An ANC, EFF and MK coalition with a two-thirds majority is likely to push for the democratisation of Eswatini. If any of Malema’s rhetoric is to go by, it will be vigorous. Sanctions and their restrictive measures will be imposed on us. The SACU receipts and agreements will be questioned. The only saving grace will be Zuma who remains a friend to Eswatini. With his age and the fact that the ANC and EFF will be against us, it is hard to imagine how Zuma would convince the two to leave Eswatini alone. Again the ANC faction led by President Ramaposa could emerge victorious and chose the Democratic Alliance (DA) as their coalition partner in which case we would be safe and the status quo will remain.  Send comments to septembereswatini@gmail.com

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