EMASWATI WON’T ACCEPT 2ND CIVIL UNREST

There have been talks about a probable second wave of the civil unrest.

In 2021, we are all aware that the country experienced an unprecedented civil unrest that claimed human lives and property. One interesting topic to be treated on social media tomorrow is titled ‘the next unrest’.  I cannot argue that there would never be another civil unrest in future or rather there is a likelihood that another one may be experienced. I am aware that political science allows people of diverse political ideologies to enjoy the freedom to make their own political predictions about the destiny of their countries.As corroborated by Bueno de Mesquita in 2009, Sherden points out that forecasting political trends continues to be a booming business. The academicians argue that it is both practically and academically unclear who should fulfil the ever-lasting wish of policymakers to know the future before it has happened.

Predictions

Of course, it is advantageous to know prospects of the future in order to plan properly. Political predictions point to the future, things that are likely to happen in the fullness of time.
Importantly, such predictions sometimes help policymakers to set up mitigation mechanisms or strategies to diffuse elements prone to influencing an unwanted political discourse. These forecasts may also be farfetched or almost close to the predicted result. There used to be a time when we listened and analysed the late Prophet Gcina Mthethwa.

Mthethwa ‘predicted’ that Tinkhundla System of Government would cease to exist in 2022. His prediction hit headlines around 2019. Some people may argue that Mthethwa was close to the predicted outcome. Others are of the view that he gave an incorrect prediction because Tinkhundla System of Government still exists up to date. However, in 2021 or early 2022, Tinkhundla Political System experienced one of its greatest challenges since inception. Its pillars were shaken. We all know the story.  In fact, I have to mention that there are striking similarities between political prediction and weather forecast.

If a weatherman predicts that the temperatures will rise to 27 degrees Celsius tomorrow, we cannot condemn him when the temperatures drop to 25 degrees Celsius.
In the same vein, we cannot condemn somebody who foresees the probability of a civil disobedience if certain things are not corrected in the political space. As much as political predictions are presumptive in thought and analysis, they remain our food for thought. We must not discard them as nonsensical hallucinations or condemn the person making those forecasts as long as they do not disturb national security and public health.

With regard to civil unrest forecasts, it is important to consider and understand the habits, beliefs, customs and traditions of emaSwati. This is a starting point to advance a compelling political forecast. Do you understand who emaSwati are?   First and foremost, emaSwati are not accustomed to political strife, civil unrest or wars. They are a nation that dislikes inconveniences. Police conduct road roadblocks on a regular basis, but the people of Eswatini do not like those roadblocks, despite that they are manned to ensure strengthening of their security. EmaSwati always criticise police for manning roadblocks during peak hours. LiSwati, as a matter of fact, wants to travel from point A to B without any disturbing police search.

Anything or anybody who frustrates or inconveniences liSwati’s smooth travel to point B is condemned in the strongest possible terms. Curfews frustrate emaSwati and they do not like roadblocks manned by soldiers. They were taught from childhood that a soldier shoots to kill and that lisotja (soldier) cannot be held accountable for the shooting, even when it is clear that it was not necessary to open fire. This may be a misconception, but it remains a perception that the public has embraced for many years.  The public’s perception that soldiers are only associated with wars has not changed. When a civil unrest breaks out, emaSwati are aware that soldiers will be dispatched to the streets to disperse rioting comrades.

Shops will be closed. To a feasible extent, they want to avoid raids, curfews and roadblocks. As much as possible, they do not want to avoid any contact with the army. They are afraid of soldiers.  Raids, curfews and roadblocks inconvenience them and also interfere with their leisure.  There are six main customary practices for emaSwati, which a civil unrest will definitely interfere with –  The right to go to work or look for a job,Leisure (attending entertainment events or going to church, if not going to a stadium to watch soccer. Thousands of emaSwati want to have a drink. LiSwati does not support any civil unrest that will interfere with the power of the throat.  Farming; (livestock, crop farming, etc)  Looking after families and maintaining love affairs.

This is very fundamental as a civil unrest interferes with the freedom of movement as liSwati cannot freely travel from Mbabane to Nhlangano to visit a spouse.
Stomach politics – as much as the poverty levels are high, the hunger levels are not so alarming that people are dying because stomachs are empty. Whether liSwati has E2 or E20, he wants to go to the shop. EmaSwati are not accustomed to a life or situation that will deprive them of their right to go to the shop. Transport – emaSwati are interrelated. One liSwati in Hhohho has relatives in the Shiselweni, and she wants to find buses at the ranks or terminus.      

    Anybody who disturbs or frustrates the abovementioned six daily practices is considered an enemy of a liSwati. The 2021 civil unrest was not predetermined. It accidentally occurred. The primary objective of the mass action was to deliver petitions to the tinkhundla centres, calling for the enactment of a law or amendment of the Constitution to allow for the election of a prime minister. Presently, this is a prerogative of His Majesty the King. As a matter of fact, nobody had thought or predetermined that a civil unrest would unfold.

Unrest

However, it must be said that the ban on petition delivery culminated in the civil unrest. I know what actually transpired on June 29, 2021 because I was at Siphofaneni on that fateful day.  The protest action at Siphofaneni and Msunduza in Mbabane was later joined by members of political parties. We cannot then say a second wave is coming soon. No! If it were to be experienced again, it would be the first time political parties to have orchestrated a civil unrest.  As earlier said, the 2021 civil unrest was never planned. It occurred accidentally. We may have to also consider the thousands and thousands of emaSwati who support the Tinkhundla Political System. What about those who associate the institution of the monarchy with Tinkhundla? What about those who are so loyal to the institution of the monarchy that they can die for the King?  Have you considered the billionaires, in and outside the country, who are just loyal to the Kingdom of Eswatini for commercial interests?

They will definitely finance the civil unrest’s opposition.  Velaphi Mamba, the Treasurer General of the People’s United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO) must know that planning and staging a civil unrest in a politically conservative environment is not a walk in the park. It is not an easy thing to accomplish. I had a conversation with Wandile Dludlu, the Deputy President of the PUDEMO, about two months ago, wherein we deliberated on political issues. I told him that, if the country were to adopt multiparty democracy to be its political system, a party that could win elections and form government is the one that would be loyal and pay allegiance to the King. In fact, that party should be in full support of the institution of the monarchy.  Any party that could issue a public statement that, once it is in power, it would get rid of the institution of monarch, it cannot win the elections. EmaSwati can disown this party. This is a fact that comrades and bloggers hate to hear.   

Even though Dludlu disagreed with me, I continued to tell him that the King, in a multiparty dispensation, can be used by political parties to garner maximum and unwavering national support. They know that a political party in support of the institution of the monarchy can set up a robust membership model.Let us not pretend as if we do not know that quite a large number of our people are uncertain about the fate of our monarch in a multiparty democracy. They would need an assurance that their King would be safe, respected and given a role to play in the politics of the country. These are the facts comrades should be prepared to face.They are in denial or being misled by social media where 50 comments would blast the King, thinking that 1.3 million people are also criticising him.

The King commands respect in the country. Politically and traditionally, he has a very large following in the country. Comrades must not deceive themselves that people now hate the institution of the monarchy. Any donor dishing out millions of dollars to a programme centred on the idea that the institution of the monarchy is on a brink of collapse is basically sponsoring an illusion. Of course, they may be some opposing figures within it. Even then, it is still very strong and relevant to many of our people. I am not, in anyway, suggesting that the institution of the monarchy is 100 per cent perfect. It has to do introspection like any other institution. After all, only God’s institution is pure.

But, as opposed to a civil unrest, I talked about the significance of reconciliation last year. On its own reconciliation is a virtue. It is a value in politics. In its findings, Governance and Social Development Resource Centre (GSDRC), the school of government at the University of Birmingham, points to the fact reconciliation prevents, once and for all, the use of the past as the seed of renewed conflict. The institution’s research findings teach us that reconciliation consolidates peace, breaks the cycle of violence and strengthens newly-established or reintroduced democratic institutions. Reconciliation derives its power and effectiveness from the principles of acknowledgement, apology and forgiveness.

Regardless of political affiliation, the nation ought to first acknowledge the existence or prevalence of ‘something’ that divides the nation. At what extent has this thing divided the nation?
After the acknowledgement of the problem, emaSwati will have an opportunity to analyse or dissect the nature of the problem. This is meant to trace its root cause. For a country’s politics to be effective, the people should learn to agree to disagree. This virtue is now lacking. A second wave of the civil unrest, in a nutshell, may not happen anytime soon.

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