DIAMONDS FORCED REGIME CHANGE IN BOTSWANA

Botswana has been praised by the African Development Bank, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for sustaining one of the world’s longest economic booms. Since the late 1980s, economic growth has been on par with some of Asia’s largest economies. The government has consistently maintained budget surpluses and has extensive foreign exchange reserves.

Botswana’s economy remains one of the world’s fastest-growing, with a GDP per capita rising by as much as 12 per cent for over two decades, which has made it an upper middle-income country. It has also remained fully democratic, despite being an almost one-party state due to the electoral success of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has helped cement its status as one of Africa’s big success stories.

To the outside world, Botswana, led by the BDP, had done extremely well; however, the recent election results paint a different picture. There is more to these election results than meets the eye. The Botswana economy has been in free fall for some time now. The regime change has, to a large extent, been caused by the decline in diamond prices. President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia once demanded more from the copper industry, and the price of copper suddenly fell until he was ousted from power.

The old guard losing power

The old liberation movements have suffered electoral defeats throughout SADC, except for Zimbabwe and Mozambique, amid allegations of voter corruption. Opposition political parties have taken power in Zambia, Malawi, Lesotho, Madagascar and Angola, and we await the results of the Namibian elections. The African National Congress of South Africa also lost its majority to govern. The Kingdom of Eswatini witnessed one of its most violent political unrests against the monarchy in June 2021 but managed to bounce back and form a government.
 This assumes that had King Sobhuza II continued with the Imbokodvo National Movement as the ruling political party, the recent elections would have indeed been difficult.

The times are changing, and the younger generation is coming of age, refusing to follow their old guard blindly. The Batswana have begun to shift away from the traditional Khama-led Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), first undermining it from within the party itself and later nationally. The election of former President Mokgweetsi Masisi was, in itself, a break from the traditional stronghold of the Khama family, as he had no relations with them.

Unfortunately, Masisi misread the signals and went too far against the Khama family by antagonising former President Ian Khama, forcing him to break away from his father’s party to form the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF). It is worth noting that the BPF was officially launched only in July 2019, as a split from the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). It was backed by former president and BDP leader at the time, Ian Khama himself, after he left the ruling party. In the October 2019 general elections, the BPF received only 8.3 per cent of the vote and won five seats, all in Khama’s home area of the Central District.Tshekedi Khama II was elected in Serowe West but was later expelled. The Khama royalty-backed opposition party, the BPF, ironically did not perform well alone. This raises the question: if the Batswana abandoned the ruling BDP, where did they direct their votes if the Khama-backed BPF performed so poorly, not even becoming the official opposition?

The Botswana general elections
The Botswana general elections, held on October 30, 2024, determined the composition of the 13th Parliament of Botswana and local councils across the country. Sixty-one seats of the National Assembly and 609 local council seats were up for election, all elected through the first-past-the-post voting system. This system does not allow for proportional representation; simply, the person with the highest votes wins. This means that in Botswana, where there may be up to six political parties contesting, a 30 per cent numerical majority is a win. The winner takes all, even by one vote.

This election marked the first time in Botswana’s history that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was voted out of power, ending fifty-eight years of single-party governance since 1966. Large voter swings toward opposition parties led to the BDP falling to fourth place. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) came in first, securing an absolute majority and ensuring the election of lawyer Duma Boko as President of Botswana, while the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) took second place, becoming the official opposition. The Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) achieved significant growth in the Central District, increasing its number of seats.

Former President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat on the morning of  November 1, 2024 and ensured a peaceful transfer of power later that same day. The new President Boko was sworn in by Chief Justice Terence Rannowane, allowing him to form the first non-BDP-led government.

Diamonds forced a regime change

The younger generation of politicians is demanding a greater share of the diamond wealth. As many would know, Botswana owned only 15 per cent of real stakes in the diamond industry, which the old guard was content with, and through that small share, they built up Botswana to what it is today. However, it is more complicated and requires a thorough explanation, but essentially, the Batswana want more. Unfortunately, the white monopoly capitalists who control the diamond industry have begun the process of punishing Botswana (and Russia) for demanding more. Firstly, they create a crisis where the diamond price declines rapidly. The crisis is such that the large mining company Anglo American wants to sell its 85 per cent stake in De Beers, the world’s number one diamond producer.

The remaining 15 per cent is held by Debswana, a joint venture between De Beers and the state of Botswana. Debswana’s uncut diamond sales fell by 49.2 per cent in the first half of one year. The negative market outlook forced Gaborone to react in order to generate more revenue from its resources. In 2023, after a long power struggle, Masisi forced De Beers to renegotiate the sales agreement. Under the original agreement, dating from 2011, the company received 90 per cent of uncut diamond production. Today, Gaborone’s share is 25 per cent and will eventually be 50 per cent, but what is a large share of nothing?

Synthetic stones or laboratory diamonds
The diamond market is in free fall worldwide – prices have fallen by around 30 per cent since 2022 following the arrival of synthetic stones. These laboratory diamonds have disrupted market prices and continue to become cheaper, with the average person unable to tell the difference. The aspiring celebrities, who are the biggest buyers, do not really care as long as it looks like real diamonds. This effectively means the diamond industry is dying, and President Duma Boko can do nothing.

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