TRUMP PRESIDENCY FROM AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE

The discussions surrounding Africa in the United States (US) presidential campaign have often felt peripheral, leaving many Africans with reservations about the substance of engagement from the administration of President-elect Donald Trump. However, a nuanced understanding of Trump’s policies and campaign rhetoric may reveal potential shifts in the US-Africa relationship in the coming years. The Kingdom of Eswatini could find itself in the American spotlight as the only remaining country with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, a close ally to the United States of America. We need to play this card to its fullest advantage given that we stand to lose everything given to the rest of Africa by Mainland China.

Trump’s first term: African engagement or neglect?

During his first term, Trump’s isolationist approach and the ‘America First’ policy diminished engagement with Africa. Development programmes, crucial for many African nations, faced reductions as Trump focused more on domestic matters. While some members of his administration visited the continent, the absence of Trump’s direct engagement raised concerns. The lack of a US-Africa summit, while adversaries like Russia expanded their influence, illustrated a troubling trend for African interests. Nonetheless, the recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara indicated a strategic game in which African nations could be leveraged for broader geopolitical manoeuvers.

Viewing Africa through geopolitical competition

With China’s influence notably rising in Africa, the Trump Administration’s establishment of the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was a significant shift to counterbalance this trend. The Prosper Africa initiative aimed to foster investment and bolster Africa’s economic frameworks, highlighting a recognition of the continent’s potential as a partner rather than merely a recipient of aid. However, the prevailing narrative still centres on competition for influence, rather than genuine partnership, which is a concern for African nations craving collaborative relations rather than a geopolitical chessboard. For the first time, Africa has a real choice in terms of trade partners, sources of funding and technology transfer.

Project 2025: Implications for African Values

Trump has repeatedly distanced himself from the policy agenda known as Project 2025, however, he has since tapped people who helped craft the plan for various administration posts. The focus on reverting to core diplomatic engagements under Project 2025 could signal a shift in US attitudes towards cultural values, affecting how the US engages with democratic norms in Africa. This would resonate positively in African countries that have criminalised LGBTQI+ people and activities, including in democratic countries such as Senegal or Ghana. Similarly, Uganda—which the Biden Administration excluded from preferential trade treatment under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), due to concerns about gay rights—could find a more sympathetic ear from the Trump administration.

Business mindset: Transactions over aid?

Trump’s transactional approach towards Africa may shift priorities away from development assistance towards forging business relationships that fit a free-market ethos. The future of initiatives like AGOA will be telling; renewals could signal a commitment to economic collaboration, but will African nations find true partnership or mere exploitation of resources? The balance between sustainable development and mere access to opportunities remains a crucial concern for African nations as they seek equitable growth.

Climate concerns, their implications

Trump’s potential withdrawal from the Paris Agreement raises alarms for Africa, a continent profoundly affected by climate change, despite contributing little to its causes. The anticipated lack of US financial support for climate adaptation leaves African countries vulnerable, emphasising the need for global solidarity in addressing climate issues. The looming disconnect between US policy and African needs could exacerbate the climate-finance gap, significantly impacting livelihoods across the continent. The reality is that the money promised to assist Africa fight climate change has not been forthcoming, even under the Biden Administration, which means it is likely to be more difficult under the Trump Administration.  

Role of influential figures like Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s connections to Africa, specifically through initiatives like Starlink, may present opportunities, yet caution is warranted about the direction of his influence. The dynamics of African nations’ relationships with the US could shift with Musk’s involvement, particularly in light of South Africa’s complex position regarding global powers. This relationship’s evolution requires careful monitoring, especially in the context of Africa’s rising stature and agency on the world stage. It’s also worth watching Elon Musk, who has emerged as a close advisor to Trump and is keen to make gains in African markets, particularly with Starlink and may offer new perspectives for reducing the energy divide. He was seen in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September, meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Namibian President Nangolo Mbumba and Lesotho Prime Minister Sam Matekane, just to mention a few.

Security Concerns: A complex landscape

As peace and stability in Africa remain fragile, Trump’s administration must contend with varied security challenges. The discussions around the recognition of Somaliland highlight a potential strategic move, but the response to growing instability in regions like the Sahel needs thoughtful consideration. The US must navigate carefully its alliances, maintaining strong ties with key partners like Kenya, while addressing emerging threats and interests. The war in Sudan is raging on, tensions between Rwanda and the DRC are rising, and the cease-fire in Ethiopia is fragile. Accordingly, it would be risky for Trump to erode the US relationship with Kenya, officially a major non-NATO ally of the United States, for the sake of US interests in East Africa. In the Sahel, after Niger and Chad told the United States to remove its military bases, the United States will need to find new strategic locations that could host US defense systems vital for US security interests. The new administration in Botswana is also threatening to remove American Military bases on their soil, while former President Ian Khama disputes that there are US military bases in Botswana. Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire may be countries of interest for the new Trump administration.

Towards an Africa-first approach?

The geopolitical landscape for Africa is transforming, with a newfound centrality that presents various partnership opportunities. Should the US fail to engage effectively, it risks sidelining itself as other global players capitalise on Africa’s strategic importance. This moment offers African nations the opportunity to assert their agency, potentially shifting the narrative from ‘America First’ to an ‘Africa First’ engagement paradigm, prompting a reassessment of global alliances and power dynamics. The ball is therefore in Washington’s court to engage on the African continent.
Comment: septembereswatini@gmail.com

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