GLOBAL DEMOCRACY DECLINES A WORRYING TREND

VDem Institute has published the Democracy Report 2025, focusing on 25 Years of autocratisation globally.  This is indeed worrying as Eswatini is also experiencing challenges regarding democracy, human rights and freedom of every liSwati.  I would like, therefore, to share some highlights of what we expect to observe regarding the unprecedented global democratic crisis.  

What is democracy?

Wikipedia states that: “In the past there was direct democracy where communities made decisions through popular assembly. Today the dominant force is representative democracy where citizens elect a government such as Parliament or Presidential democracy.  

In liberal democracy, the powers of the majority are exercised within the framework of a representative democracy, but the country’s Constitution and Supreme Court limit majority and protect minority by securing enjoyment of rights by individuals such as freedom of speech, freedom of association”
 
 
It is noted in the democracy report: 
The level of democracy for the average world citizen is back to 1985; by country averages, it is back to 1996.  Also noted is that democracy is losing out the most in terms of economic power. It is at its lowest level in over 50 years. It paints a picture that it is a truly a global wave of autocratisation, noting that the Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia are in particularly in steep decline.

It is further observed that the world has fewer democracies (88) than autocracies (91) for the first time in over 20 years.  Liberal democracies have become the least common regime type in the world, a total of 29 in 2024.   Nearly three out of four persons in the world – 72 per cent – now live in autocracies. This is the highest since 1978.

Losses

This decline is reflected in the alarming loss of freedom of expression.

This situation is worsening in 44 countries by 2024, up from 35 in last year’s report.  This includes:  Clean elections declining in 25 countries, freedom of association in 22 countries and rule of law in 18 countries. It is alarming that the United States Government is revoking visas for students who were seen protesting about the Gaza war and they then get deported.  

The reports noted that the ‘third wave’ of autocratisation is still rising after at least 25 years.  Almost 40 per cent of the world population live in autocratising countries. This totals to 3.1 billion people.  It is noted that   countries with less than 6 per cent of the world population – or 452 million – are democratising.

 An increasing number of countries – now 45 – are autocratising, of which 27 of the 45 autocracies were democracies at the start of their episode. Of these, only 9 remain democracies in 2024. The fatality rate is 67 per cent.  The favourite weapon of autocratisers is media censorship, followed by undermining elections and civil society.  

This is sadly what is also worrying under the Tinkhundla system of government, where citizens’ rights and freedoms that are guaranteed in the Constitution are not enjoyed by emaSwati.  It is alleged that a leader of a police junior officers association was illegally manhandled and detained so that she could not attend a meeting organised by her association. It was reported that the officer was off duty and the meeting was private.  Is freedom of association and freedom of movement a right in Eswatini?  Are police above the law?

It is noted in the report that only 19 countries are in episodes of democratisation.  Twelve of the 19 democratisers started as autocracies while nine of these transitioned to democracy. The ‘success rate’ is 75 per cent.   
It is noted further that freedom of expression improves most often during democratisation, closely followed by rule of law and executive oversight.

The 2024 year of elections overall did neither ‘break’ nor ‘make’ it for democracy. The global trend remains largely unchanged.  Out of 61 countries holding elections, only 11 countries changed their trajectories.

Overall, there were slightly more countries with negative (seven) than positive (four) changes of trajectories. Increasing political violence and pro-democracy mobilisation are the most visible trends of the 2024 year of elections.
Democracy levels in sub-Saharan Africa have declined in past years by both measures in almost equal degree – the region is now back to its 2000-level.

In fact, it is noted in the report that in sub-Saharan Africa, most people – 64 per cent – reside in autocracies. The declines are driven in part by a series of coups in the Sahel region from 2020 to 2023, as well as by increasingly authoritarian rule in already autocratic countries.  

What needs to be done?

Former United States (US) President Barack Obama once said: “If we want democracy to flourish, we will have to fight for it. We will have to nurture it. And we will have to demonstrate its value again and again”.
We can’t let authoritarianism succeed!

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