Times Of Swaziland: HEADLINE INFLATION TICKS UP TO 4.5%

HEADLINE INFLATION TICKS UP TO 4.5%
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Nhlanganiso Mkhonta on 16/02/2024 10:23:00


MBABANE – After having been on the downward trend for two consecutive months,
the country’s headline inflation ticked up to 4.5 per cent in January.
According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, issued by the Central
Statistical Office (CSO) yesterday, this inflation rate has shown an increase of
0.14 percentage points from the 4.3 per cent, that was observed in December
2023. The 4.5 per cent observed in January 2024 was lower than the inflation
rate of 5.3 per cent, which was observed in January 2023.
The CSO reported that for January, the housing and utilities (2.0 per cent) and
the food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.3 per cent) categories, respectively
contributed significantly to the headline inflation rate of 4.5 per cent.
Month-on-month highlights (January 2024 compared with December 2023), indicated
that restaurants and hotels, which increased from 0.2 per cent in December 2023
to 12.2 per cent in January 2024, where increasing rates were observed in
accommodation services.
Miscellaneous goods and services, which increased from 0.0 per cent in December
2023, to 4.0 per cent in January 2024, where increasing rates were observed in
other services and financial services. Yearly analysis indicated that food and
non-alcoholic beverages, decreased from 15.5 per cent in January 2023 to 5.6 per
cent in January 2024.
This was due to oils and fats (which recorded a negative growth); fish and
seafood; and bread and cereals, which both recorded slower growths.
Transport decreased from 4.7 per cent in January 2023 to 1.3 per cent in January
2024. This lower rate was due to negative growth rates observed in airfares; and
slower growth rates observed in fuels and lubricants. Health decreased from 21.9
per cent in January 2023 to 2.5 per cent in January 2024. This was due to lower
price increases observed in medical services.
Globally, according to the Economic Experts Survey, German think-tank, Ifo
Institute, economists projected a global average inflation rate for 2024 at 5
per cent, lower than the previous expectation of 6 per cent. Expected inflation
rates for 2025 and 2027, follow a downward trend compared to the previous
quarter, but remain high at 4.4 and 3.6 per cent, respectively.
“Inflation expectations vary widely among the world’s regions,” as most
regions show a decline in short-term and long-term inflation expectations
compared to the previous quarter. Global economic growth will remain
‘resilient’ this year after a stronger-than-expected 2023, the International
Monetary Fund said on Thursday, but work is needed to boost global growth rates
above an anemic three per cent range in the medium term.