Times Of Swaziland: EUROPE'S DEFENCE SPENDING SURGE

EUROPE'S DEFENCE SPENDING SURGE
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Sanele Sibiya on 26/03/2025 08:12:00


THE globe is contending with multiple geopolitical moving elements, bringing a
new wave of uncertainty into the global world order. There a swift changes in
the situation in the middle east, Israel continues to invade the Gaza strip,
America threatens to attack Iran if they do not cease funding terrorist
entities. On Tuesday morning the globe woke up to news of security breaches
within the Pentagon, with America plotting to attack Yemen in search of Houthi
insurgents. Stocking fears into markets and commerce as the entire Middle East
region may be drawn into the conflict. Europe is responding to all these
movements through increases in defence spends. A bevy of European countries
target to increase defence spend to five per cent of their gross domestic
product (GDP). Though these increases in defence spending are aimed at
increasing Europe’s defence capabilities they will no doubt have impacts on
Eswatini. Eswatini therefore, needs to adjust and infuse flexibilities to
respond to these changes within Europe.
A changing global landscape
The geopolitical landscape is going through a seismic tectonic shift. Europe is
being forced to increase its defence spending to at least five per cent of GDP.
Countries like the United Kingdoms, France, Ireland etc., have already made
commitments to increase their defence spend to five per cent of GDP. The reasons
are relatively straight forward, the change in the North American Treaty
Organisation (NATO), threaten to leave Europe defenceless. In the past couple of
weeks president Trump has threatened to give up the position of General of the
NATO troops, much against the founding documents of NATO in that the country
with a huge compliment of soldiers in NATO should assume command of the organ.
Furthermore, the global order is changing, forcing Europe to respond by an equal
might, the China rise to a global super power is a real concern for Europe and
there is need to stand ready to absorb such a shock, through bolstering
capabilities. This tremor in the global geopolitical landscape will have marked
impacts on Eswatini, impacting global trade, international relations and
development aid.
Economic impacts
Trade between Eswatini and Europe reached 280million Euros in 2022, signalling
the magnitude of bilateral reliance between the two partners. A shift in
spending towards defence in Europe could affect Eswatini’s exports to Europe.
This could change the configuration of Europe’s imports in favour of high tech
defence imports or components crucial in improving the capabilities of the
defence industry in Europe. This could have adverse effects on Eswatini since
Eswatini exports are largely raw materials and agricultural. We may experience a
shrink in demand emanating through the European trade channel. On the upside, a
shift in industrial configuration in Europe to focus on defence opens up space
for increased imports of agricultural products and raw material as Europe shifts
industrial capability to the military industrial complex. Therefore, Eswatini
needs to start planning a supply response through ramping up agricultural
production. To ensure that we are able to benefit from this industrial shift in
Europe, Eswatini need to leverage existing economic and political ties with
Europe. Furthermore, the impacts will also be felt through the development
assistance channel. Europe is one of the major development partners in Eswatini
and a large portion of Europe’s aid is channelled to aid for trade and
economic resilience. This aid is expected to shrink as Europe shifts spending to
defence spending. This will exacerbate the impact of a freeze in USAID placing
the social response in Eswatini in further disarray and slowing economic growth
prospects.
Security and stability concerns
The surge in European defence spending also has implications for global security
dynamics, which could indirectly affect Eswatini. As European nations focus on
addressing security threats in their own region, there may be less attention and
resources available for peacekeeping and conflict resolution efforts in Africa.
This could exacerbate instability in neighbouring regions, with potential
spill-over effects for Eswatini. Moreover, the increased militarisation of
global politics could lead to a rise in arms exports to Africa, including to
countries near Eswatini. This could heighten the risk of regional conflicts and
undermine efforts to promote peace and stability on the continent.
Migration and humanitarian challenges
Another area of concern is the impact of Europe’s defence spending on
migration policies. As European nations invest in border security and
surveillance technologies, there is likely to be a tightening of migration
controls. This could make it more difficult for Eswatini’s citizens to seek
opportunities in Europe, whether for work, education or asylum. At the same
time, stricter migration policies could lead to an increase in irregular
migration, with associated risks such as human trafficking and exploitation.
Eswatini, as a transit country for migrants from other parts of Africa, may face
additional challenges in managing these issues.
The role of regional cooperation
In light of these challenges, regional cooperation will be crucial for Eswatini
to navigate the implications of Europe’s defence spending surge. By working
closely with neighbouring countries and regional organisations like the Southern
African Development Community (SADC), Eswatini can strengthen its position in
global negotiations and advocate for policies that support its development
goals.