LA NINA ALLAYS FEARS OF DROUGHT

MBABANE – Forget about reports of the country being hit by a drought as latest predictions are to the effect that the kingdom will experience weak La Nina conditions.

This has been confirmed by  weather experts from the Swaziland Meteorological Services Department following a recent report from World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which established weak La Nina conditions.
With the predicted La Nina situation, the region is expected to experience increased chances of rainfall during the peak of the summer season. La Nina, also known as ‘cold event’,  refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ,along with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation. El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of atmosphere-ocean interplay over the tropical Pacific, collectively referred to as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Director of Swaziland Meteorological Services Department Dudu Nhlengethwa said by virtue of being predicted as weak, La Nina caution should be taken given some of the possibilities.

She said the WMO prediction of a weak La Nina was in line with the national outlook, where predictions show mostly normal to above normal rainfall throughout the season, save for a few areas that may experience normal to below normal rainfall during the intra season period of November, December and January (NDJ) and December, January and February (DJF). “It should be emphasised that this is not always the norm in all previous La Nina events, as in some instances other factors like intense cyclonic activity during the peak of the summer months (December - February) over the Indian Ocean had reduced chances of good rains in the country significantly,” she said. This, according to Nhlengethwa, was a wait and see situation as the chances of the weather condition could transform at any moment. According to the WMO report, El Nino and La Nina have opposite effects on weather and climate patterns.

Areas that receive below average rainfall during El Nino, tend to receive above average rainfall during La Nina and vice versa. Principal Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture Bongani Masuku said rainfall was encouraging and giving hope to the country. However, he advised farmers to take precautions as the weather patterns could not be fully trusted. “Normal and above normal rains can be experienced but at the same time there could be dry spells which could result in the drying up of the crops,” he said. Masuku said there was also a challenge with the distribution of the rains in other regions that affected crops, which made it important for farmers to be cautious. He said the ministry had encouraged cattle farmers to sell livestock that was ready for the market for safety purposes.

According to Masuku, this was mainly to instil the culture of business to the Swazi farmers so that they know that cattle are a business. “By so doing, it allows the other cattle to grow properly and also minimises issues of soil erosion caused by cattle grazing, he said.

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