ESWATINI ECONOMY HEADED FOR WORST

MBABANE - The economy of Eswatini, some economists say, is headed for the worst if government does not quickly come up with solutions to the political unrest.

Economists interviewed by this publication regarding the ongoing situation in the country raised concerns about the effects the unrest would have on the economy. If it was not for the fact that Lilangeni was pegged to the South African Rand, one economist said, it would have weakened to its lowest level. The countrywide protests started in late June 2021 after government banned the delivery of petitions to their respective tinkhundla centres.

Some businesses were looted, vandalised and some were set on fire. His Majesty the King announced a Reconstruction Fund where government pledged E500 million. Property, mainly schools were targeted by arsonists where either classrooms, staffrooms and other buildings were set on fire.

Pupils

After the minister of Education and Training, Lady Mabuza, announced the return to normal of learning for all pupils, learners staged protests and made a lot of demands, which included the release of of Members of Parliament (MPs)Mduduzi Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube of Hosea and Ngwempisi respectively.
Last week, the country was marred by protests undertaken by employees in the transport sector. According to the economists, the recent public transport operators protests may also be  detrimental  to the economy of the country if government did not come up with solutions soon.

They urged government to act promptly and respond to the grievances of the people. University of Eswatini Economist Sanele Sibiya said Eswatini may become a radicalised nation. He said this was because emaSwati’s concerns were not being addressed. Sibiya said the current unrest was a clear indication that the kingdom might never reform back to normal.

Decision

“Government has to make a decision on whether we are  moving in a direction where we are a radicalised country or they call the nation to a dialogue to discuss the issues emaSwati want solutions to, which I see as the best decision government should take .They would then have to quickly come up with solutions to the problems as until then, nothing will change and people will continue protesting,” he said.

He said he foresaw a situation where the economy did not go back to its normal state but rather continued deteriorating. Sibiya mentioned that there was an urgent need for dialogue as the consequences of a continuation of the protests would plunge emaSwati in an economic crisis which would be hard to come out of.  “The country is already in a bad position following the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the country and its economy. As we were welcoming the easing of restrictions and opening of the country, riots began affecting the economy,” he said.  Sibiya expressed his fears about the upcoming 2023 elections if government failed to fix the current problems.

Furthermore, Sibiya stated that the reason  the country’s currency did not depreciate  was because Eswatini was a member of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and Lilangeni is pegged to the South African Rand. Namibia and Lesotho are also members of the CMA.  The economist said the monetary union played a major role in ensuring that the strength of Lilangeni has not been affected by the unrest.

Investors

Another economist, Thembinkosi Dube, said the current unrest would also cause emaSwati to lose international investors.  He said if investors would leave the country, a lot of emaSwati would would leave their jobs, increasing the already high employment rate. “Currently, people are working to just make ends meet, which means that they are not performing at their optimal best. Should they be heard, a number of things would change in the kingdom as emaSwati would be giving their best effort,” he said.

Dube said investors favoured democratic countries because that meant a free economy. According to Dube, a country’s rule of law plays an important role in attracting foreign investment. He further mentioned that the positive which would come from the current situations was if investors chose to leave the country, emaSwati would occupy the spaces left vacant by those who would decide to leave.

Dube then mentioned that Eswatini could experience a brain drain as emaSwati would go elsewhere and use their skills where they feel appreciated. On the other hand, head teachers also raised their concerns about the state of affairs in the country. They said the reconstruction of schools and replacement of damaged school property would cost a lot of money and take a lot of time to fix.

Eswatini Principals Association (EPA) Secretary General Mduduzi Masilela expressed concern about the destruction of schools’ property and infrastructure. He said the learners and parents, and by extension, the community, would need the schools and property when the challenges had been resolved. He advised the Ministry of Education and Training to consider the severity of the prevailing situation and make the appropriate call. He further reiterated its conviction for prompt and genuine dialogue. He said the dialogue would hopefully identify the underlying causes of the discord, which had culminated in the disruption of teaching and learning.

Protest

SNAT Secretary General Sikelela Dlamini stated that although the current protests would impact the economy, their focus was to get solutions to the current political problems in the country. “In Eswatini, the ongoing protests shall surely impact the economy negatively. Our focus as a nation should be in developing home-grown solutions to the current political problems instead of focussing on the impact of the demonstrations on the economy. “All protests do lead to a downward spiral of the economy. Even a one day work disruption by workers does have a negative impact on the economy and that is the main objective of engaging in a protest. It’s a strategy to pile up pressure on anyone,” he said.

He said the solution was to commit to an all inclusive dialogue wherein all stakeholders had a say in terms of how the country was to be governed.  He further said that resorting to threats, violence and persecution of the people would not bring a solution to the problems.

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