‘WHY GOVT CAN’T AFFORD TO HIRE 42 000 SECURITY FORCES’

MANZINI – Government cannot afford to hire 42 000 State security personnel as that will cost about E4.53 billion.

This was said by a number of economists when sought for their input on the feasibility of a submission by former Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Prince Simelane, before His Majesty King Mswati III last Thursday. Prince Simelane, in his submission, said soldiers could work better if their numbers could be increased to a minimum of 15 000, while police officers should be about 12 000 and Correctional officers be around 10 000. In addition, he said personnel under the Eswatini National Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services (ENFRES) should be hiked to 5 000. This translates to the total number of personnel under the four entities being 42 000. In computing this figure at the lowest earning scale of the entities, it would mean that government would have to budget for about E180 million per month for the 15 000 that would be recruited into the Umbutfo Eswatini Defence Force (UEDF). This is because a recruit in the UEDF is remunerated about E12 000 per month, which tallies E144 000 per year.

Ranks

This is equivalent to E2.16 billion per annum. Despite this amount per annum, the remuneration of the UEDF would be higher than this as there are various ranks due to seniority, which some of them (ranks), result in triple or more of the entry level salary. Unconfirmed reports proximate the number of soldiers in the country to be around 3 500. On the other hand, recruits at His Majesty’s Correctional Services (HMCS) and the Royal Eswatini Police Service (REPS) draw a remuneration of E5 636.58, which is E67 639 annually. Given that the entities draw a similar salary, for the 22 000 officers at this minimum scale, government would have to pay E1.488 million per annum. This is because monthly, they would draw a salary of about E124 million. There are said to be about 4 000 police officers in the country while there are also said to be about the same number of Correctional officers.

Meanwhile, the 5 000 officers at the ENFRES would at minimal scale cost government E543.6 million per annum as the minimum pay in this entity for firefighters is about E9 060, which tallies E45.3 million per month. It is worth noting that the ENFRES is currently in the recruiting process to fill vacancies in the entity. There are about 500 officers in the nine stations covering the whole country. In total, at minimum cost, it would mean government would have to budget for E4 529 853 000 excluding other allowances for the security personnel. In light of this amount, economists say it is not feasible for government to recruit so many people and draw from the wage bill.

Freeze

There are currently about 44 000 civil servants drawing remuneration from government coffers and it is said to be a strain on the administration. As such, in 2018, government introduced a hiring freeze as a means to deal with the bloated wage bill. The University of Eswatini (UNESWA) Economics Lecturer Sanele Sibiya said the recruitment of so many security personnel was not feasible, but instead, it would be a burden to the taxpayer. Sibiya said as much as peace and security were the cornerstone of luring into the country foreign direct investment (FDI), such a recruitment would undo all the great strides achieved by the past Parliament in improving the economy. “We just don’t have the money and it would upset many other essential services in the country,” Sibiya said. Another economist said these figures were too steep for a population of 1.2 million; but what government could do in the long-run was offer employment to all pupils in the forces upon completing their high school.

He said this could create reserve personnel for all the State security entities, who would, where need be, be recalled to render service for the country. The economist supposed that such recruitment could be between three to five years. “During their service, they can be trained in various strategic fields which would be essential to the growth of the country. This will bring patriotic emaSwati in all sectors who are also ready to serve the kingdom in times of crises,” he said. The economist said a study would have to be engaged in to determine how they would be compensated as he supposed that instead of drawing a full salary, they could be afforded scholarships to pursue various interests while also minimising the retirement age.

politicians

Given the amount spent on the civil service and politicians, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under Article IV of 2023, states that while welcoming efforts to contain the wage bill, and the introduction of a Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) revenue stabilisation fund, IMF directors emphasised the need for a revised medium-term fiscal adjustment plan anchored on a primary surplus and supported by macro structural reforms to facilitate private sector-led growth. In addition to further reductions of the public wage bill, the IMF directors highlighted the criticality of public enterprise reform and rationalisation of Eswatini’s tax expenditure regime, together with efforts to improve the social safety net. They reported that fiscal adjustment should continue to target a reduction in the public wage bill and transfers to public enterprises, but also a rationalisation of Eswatini’s tax expenditure regime. “Consolidation will need to be supported by stronger public financial management. Monetary and exchange rate policy should continue to focus on price stability and maintaining adequate reserves to safeguard the peg. Macro-structural reforms should focus on improving the business environment, bolstering governance and rule of law, and reducing the State’s footprint on the economy. Further progress is needed to improve financial sector supervision and address gaps in AML/CFT compliance,” reads the report in part.

Restraint

The IMF directors reported that the public wage restraint and reduced capital spending helped contain the financial year 2021/22 fiscal deficit, but deterioration was expected in 2022/23.
It was reported that the IMF directors proposed that a revised Fiscal Adjustment Plan (FAP) be embedded in the government’s medium-term fiscal framework and anchored around a primary fiscal surplus to guide year-on-year adjustment. “In line with the objectives identified in the government’s 2020 FAP, reducing the public wage bill (currently equivalent to about 48 per cent of tax revenue) should remain a priority, but measures need to be carefully evaluated with respect to fiscal impact.” The IMF noted that government was considering an Enhanced Voluntary Early Retirement Scheme (EVERS) in 2024, with the aim of reducing the workforce by 10 per cent.

However, they reported that estimates suggested that budgetary savings from EVERS may be low and as such, it was recommended that  government needed to develop a credible medium-term road map - targeted towards reducing the overall wage bill to 10 per cent of GDP or less by the end of the medium-term—through adjustments to remuneration and size of the government workforce. This road map, the IMF said, should guide salary review negotiations, annual decisions regarding cost-of-living adjustments and recruitment to ensure consistency with the medium-term fiscal adjustment plan and be supported by technical assistance from the IMF and development partners, where needed.

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