ESWATINI’S FATE IF ANC LOSES ELECTIONS

MBABANE – Will Eswatini be affected should South Africa’s (SA) ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC) lose the upcoming national elections?

As SA citizens are expecting to cast votes in various polling stations in mid-2024, Eswatini is uncertain about how the final decision might impact the kingdom, both economically and politically. Eswatini  imports a bulk of its commodities such as electricity, fuel and maize, among others, from SA. Also, locally produced products are exported via SA to foreign markets.
Estimates show that Eswatini spends about E33 billion annually on importation of goods from South Africa. Some African countries such as SA, Mozambique, Namibia, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Algeria, Ghana, South Sudan and Senegal, among others, will have national elections. As SA’s national elections draw closer, political parties are expecting to deal with load shedding, which is the topical issue at the moment.

Eswatini and SA have agreements allowing these two States to trade freely. Eswatini exports over 80 per cent of its electricity from SA, 12 per cent from Mozambique and only eight per cent is generated locally. Sanele Sibiya, an Economist and University of Eswatini (UNESWA) Lecturer suspects Eswatini might find itself in the dark, should it happen that SA’s government decides not to renew the contract allowing purchasing of electricity by 2025.

Problem

Zooming in on the SA national elections, Sibiya said load-shedding was one factor that would determine whether or not the ANC retains office. “Former ANC President Jacob Zuma and other politicians are coming forth, claiming to have sorted out load-shedding during their time. In 2024, the winner could be determined by the amount of effort made to sort out the current major problem affecting SA,” said Sibiya. Sibiya said it was on record that over 70 per cent of the electricity used locally came from Eskom. He said 2025 was the year when the contract between the two States ends, it was therefore, unclear what would happen thereafter. “SA’s upcoming national elections make it uncertain whether the existing contract between the two States (Eswatini and SA) will be renewed or not. We do not know which party will ascend office this time and the plans it has in taking the country forward. This is the main issue we have as a country regarding the upcoming SA national elections. The elections will determine whether SA continues to sell electricity to countries like Eswatini or save it for their personal use,” he explained.

According to the economist, come 2025, SA might decide not to sell its electricity to countries like Eswatini. He said the electricity contract had been all along binding the two countries despite load-shedding, which has affected SA for some time now. “The SA Government might decide not to renew the contract going forward in 2025. If that happens, that would mean lelive litawuba mnyama since we get a high amount of electricity from them (SA). This will be a painful moment for the country to face,” he said.

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