MBABANE – The eruption of war in the Middle East has sent a historic shockwave through global commodity markets that is now threatening to reach the doorsteps of every Eswatini household.
A loaf of bread in Mbabane, a bag of maize meal in Manzini or cooking oil in a rural homestead—these everyday essentials for emaSwati are directly tied to a war unfolding thousands of kilometres away in the Middle East.
A new World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2026) Report paints a sobering picture: The conflict is not just a geopolitical crisis, but a global economic shock that is set to push up the cost of fuel, fertiliser and ultimately, food.
For a small, import-dependent economy like Eswatini, the implications are direct and far-reaching—touching everything from transport costs to supermarket prices.
At the centre of the unfolding crisis is a disruption to global energy markets. The report highlights that the war has severely affected trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for oil and gas.
Before the conflict, the Strait handled a significant share of global energy trade. Its disruption has triggered what the World Bank describes as the largest oil supply shock on record, with global supply falling sharply in March 2026.
Surged
Oil prices responded immediately. Brent crude surged dramatically, with global energy prices now projected to rise by 24 per cent in 2026.
For Eswatini, which imports all of its fuel, this translates into higher costs across the economy. Fuel is not just a commodity—it is a foundational input in transport, manufacturing, agriculture and retail.
When fuel prices rise:
- Transport costs increase
- Production becomes more expensive
- Distribution costs escalate
These increases ultimately filter through to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
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The eruption of war in the Middle East has sent a historic shockwave through global commodity markets that is now threatening to reach the doorsteps of every Eswatini household.