In2024, the United States electorate was staunchly behind the Republican Party as it cruised comfortably into power, gaining from a feeble end to the Democrat government of 2020-2024. During his subsequent presidency, Donald Trump perfected the U-turn in policies and decisions; his trademark political gimmick. In the recent mid-term elections, the electorate did it to him.
I made the mistake last week of suggesting the USA mid-term elections were not of enough significance in practical terms to justify a full article. Like many, I underestimated the power of the people and the highly dramatic vote that was to emerge; though in retrospect hardly surprising. I need to emphasise at this point that my comments are purely personal, though I trust them to be morally and legally permissible as an expression of opinion regarding, in this case, the United States of America. Though I do not pretend to be capturing the opinion of fellow emaSwati or indeed of our government.
Winning the US House of Representatives was expected for the Democrats. A simple majority was needed in a tussle for 435 seats. The Senate vote was much trickier. While all ‘representatives’ seek re-election every two years, the ‘senators’, when elected, are in for six years. That means the elections (mid- and full-term) only have a vote for one third of the senator seats. To regain control of the Senate would require a substantial swing in the vote; and the Democrats got it.
The emphasis of the vote was primarily on the Iran war and its effect on the average American’s pocket, especially at the fuel pump. There has also been a broad accusation of corrupt activities by the president, but in that regard, we would only know the truth from a Congress-authorised forensic investigation. That may happen now that the Democrats control Congress. Mr Trump’s autocratic and non-democratic style undoubtedly was also a factor among the electorate, though less easily articulated by the average voter. A very substantial number of them enjoyed his bold self-aggrandisement and the direction embraced within certain policies.
There was never a clear explanation for taking the actual step into outright war with Iran. And at least one very senior official in the Trump administration resigned over disagreement with that decision. The world knew that Iran was financing the troublemakers like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, but whether a flat-out declaration of war was justified remains to be seen. The odds-on bet is that heavy pressure came from the powerful Jewish lobby in the US and from Israel. A thorough investigation is necessary to find the truth and then bring the war to an end.
The Iran war has significantly reduced the military coffers of the US Government. One wonders if the massive non-empathetic cuts in weaponry assistance to Ukraine and humanitarian financial support to developing countries were in anticipation of that. While the average American is believed to be less interested in the outside world than, perhaps, other NATO members, the international reputation of the USA, from a power perspective, is another matter entirely. The inability to hit Iran for six has downgraded the US on the world military barometer. Other recalcitrant countries, in particular North Korea, will see it as the ‘litmus test’ of military ability and will judge that the US is less powerful than everyone thought. That counts for a lot in the global arena. What popularity Trump did have among his followers was as a leader not afraid to use the threat of reprisal from the US. That carries considerably less weight now and leaves the world a great deal less stable.
Mr Trump, in turn, drew on the most basic forms of political contradiction. By saying: “I will accept the outcome of the elections” while, in the same breath, reminding his people that he retained the power of the veto for legislation. That was obstructive. His decision after the election to replace the existing Chief of Staff with a new appointee, Stephen Miller, has very clearly suggested the adoption of a ‘bunker mentality’, which won’t help anyone. One journal referred to the Miller appointment as like ‘shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic’. We hope that, instead of that, Mr Trump will use his remaining two years in power productively and collaboratively. Otherwise, there will be the risk of his impeachment, which might lead to the loss of the presidency.
For a productive last two years, Trump can start by facing the music and exhibiting honesty and self-appraisal before the US electorate. He should definitely avoid statements such as ‘In this election I want you to pretend I’m on the ballot’. Then when the result came in, he said: “It’s because I wasn’t on the ballot. If I had been, we’d have won by a landslide.” No one in the US expects a defeated president to crawl pathetically after defeat. But he would be wise to cast aside any aggressive and self-delusional approach. This is not a game, nor is it war.
The American people have pride of place in the United States and Mr Trump should place himself and his Republican Party firmly with the American people. They have voted and that should be respected by all.
