Eswatini risks missing E1.2bn AI economic opportunity – study

MBABANE – Eswatini could unlock approximately E1.23 billion in additional economic output through artificial intelligence (AI) over the next decade.

However, poor youth readiness threatens the country’s ability to capitalise on this emerging economic opportunity.

This is according to a new Commonwealth study which ranks Eswatini fifth from the bottom among 56 member countries assessed for their preparedness to ensure young people benefit from AI-driven economic transformation.

The Ayre Index, launched during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, places Eswatini at position 52, with a score of 36.9 out of 100 against a readiness benchmark of 53.

Only 15 of the 56 countries achieved or exceeded the benchmark, highlighting the considerable work required across the Commonwealth to prepare young people for an economy increasingly influenced by AI.

The study, conducted by the Ayre Think Tank, identifies several structural challenges that could undermine Eswatini’s ability to benefit from the technology, particularly the country’s employment situation and unequal access to affordable digital services.

Youth unemployment a major concern

MBABANE – One of the most concerning findings is that Eswatini has a youth unemployment rate of 52.6 per cent of the labour force, the highest among all 56 Commonwealth countries examined.

The research further identifies widespread informal employment as an additional challenge, as it limits young people’s access to stable livelihoods and potentially reduces their ability to participate in technology-driven economic activities.

Affordability of digital connectivity is another significant concern. Although internet usage among young people stands at 66.3 per cent and electricity reaches 89.3 per cent of the population, mobile data remains expensive for lower-income households.

According to the index, mobile data costs amount to 17.37 per cent of income for the poorest 40 per cent of the population.

This affordability challenge is reflected in the country’s performance on digital capabilities. While Eswatini scored 7.1 out of 10 for meaningful access to technology, it managed only 1.2 out of 10 for digital, data, media and AI capability.

Despite these shortcomings, the economic benefits potentially associated with AI are substantial.

Using 10-year economic scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and applying them to Eswatini’s economy, researchers estimate that AI could increase the level of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by US$75 million, equivalent to approximately E1.23 billion, under the moderate scenario.

Under the optimistic scenario, the projected increase rises to US$114 million (approximately E1.87 billion), while the conservative scenario estimates an increase of US$36 million, translating to about E592.1 million.

The projections are particularly significant given that Eswatini has approximately 360 000 young people aged between 15 and 29 who could potentially benefit from new economic activities associated with the technology.

Founder of the Ayre Think Tank, Calvin Ayre, said countries needed to recognise that AI was changing the way businesses operated, work was performed and wealth was created.

“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead – whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves,” he said.

Ayre said the index was intended to show countries where they stood in preparing their young populations for technological changes and identify areas requiring urgent intervention.

The ayre index: 56 commonwealth countries