MBABANE – Petrol prices in Eswatini could surge to as high as E30 per litre in the near future if escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran persist, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
This warning comes from Business Eswatini Chief Executive Officer E. Nathi Dlamini, who says the country is already beginning to feel the economic strain of the conflict.
The CEO was speaking on the Eswatini Television Authority (ESTVA) programme, MarketView.
Dlamini cautioned that Eswatini, like many smaller economies, remains highly vulnerable to global shocks despite having no direct involvement in geopolitical disputes.
He drew parallels with the Russia-Ukraine War, noting that earlier warnings about rising costs of essential goods such as grain, flour and fertiliser were initially met with scepticism, but ultimately proved accurate as prices surged. He said a similar pattern is now unfolding, with fuel supply disruptions emerging as an early sign of deeper economic challenges ahead. According to Dlamini, vessels carrying fuel have already been detained amid the tensions, including shipments destined for Eswatini.
This has contributed to a tightening global supply, raising the risk of severe shortages.
“Even though we did not start the conflict, we are already experiencing its negative effects,” he said, adding that the situation could deteriorate further. He warned that there may come a point where fuel becomes scarce to the extent that it is unavailable at any price. Eswatini’s vulnerability is compounded by structural limitations within its fuel supply system.
The country consumes approximately one million litres of fuel per day, but has storage capacity of only two million litres—enough to last just two days. Dlamini stressed that this makes the development of a strategic fuel reserve not just important, but urgent.
In the short term, Eswatini has relied on regional dynamics to cushion supply disruptions.
He said South Africa was able to build up reserves early in the conflict, and some of this supply has helped stabilise availability in the region. However, Dlamini warned that these reserves are finite and will eventually be depleted.
He also highlighted structural challenges in how fuel is procured across the Southern African region.
The CEO said smaller economies such as Eswatini often cannot purchase full cargo loads independently and instead rely on intermediaries, commonly referred to as fuel traders, who consolidate demand across multiple countries within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). While this system enables access to supply, he said it has introduced additional costs.
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