MBABANE – The easing of Eswatini’s inflation rate from 2.9 per cent in October to 2.4 per cent in November is largely being driven by moderating food and transport prices, offering temporary relief to consumers.
This was revealed by Economist and University of Eswatini lecturer Sanele Sibiya.
Eswatini’s inflation rate eased further in November, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing that overall prices rose by 2.4 per cent compared to the same month last year.
This marks a slowdown from the 2.9 per cent recorded in October 2025 and is also lower than the 3.7 per cent inflation rate recorded in November 2024, according to the latest CPI report released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO).
The CPI measures changes in the prices of goods and services commonly bought by households and is the main indicator used to track inflation in the country. The November figures show that price pressures continued to soften across several major spending categories.
Commenting on the latest inflation figures, Sibiya said the decline tells several important stories about the structure of price movements in the economy, particularly the seasonal nature of food inflation and the influence of global fuel dynamics.
He explained that the moderation in food prices is consistent with the current farming season, which has improved domestic supply. Increased availability of vegetables and other produce has contributed to lower prices, a trend that is expected to continue for several months.
“We are in the farming season, and supply is responding positively, largely supported by favourable weather and rainfall,” he noted, adding that food inflation is likely to remain subdued until at least May or June, extending into the post-harvest period.
According to Sibiya, this development should bring some relief to households, particularly as food accounts for a significant share of consumer spending in Eswatini. However, he cautioned that this moderation is seasonal and may reverse as the country approaches winter.
Fuel and transport costs have also played a major role in easing headline inflation. Sibiya attributed this to the strength of the exchange rate and a notable decline in global oil prices.
“The lilangeni has been performing well against major currencies, which has helped moderate imported inflation,” he said, noting that the exchange rate was trading around E16.94 to the US dollar at the time of his analysis.
On the global front, Brent crude oil prices have fallen significantly from the highs recorded at the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Sibiya pointed out that crude oil is now trading at around US$59.80 per barrel, compared to averages of between US$80 and US$90 in the early stages of the war.
This decline, he explained, signals an oversupply in the oil market, as the initial shock from sanctions on Russian oil has gradually dissipated. Prospects of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could further soften prices if Russian oil re-enters global markets in larger volumes.
“That would increase supply even more and push prices further down, cushioning both consumers and businesses from high fuel costs,” he said.
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