MBABANE – Economic growth for 2027 has been revised upward to 3.9 per cent, a notable increase from the previous projection of 1.6 per cent.
This signals renewed confidence in Eswatini’s medium-term economic prospects as delayed capital projects, improving sectoral performance and new infrastructure initiatives are now expected to gain momentum.
The revised outlook is contained in the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development’s January 2026 review of the Eswatini Medium-Term Economic Growth Forecasts (2025–2030), which reflects a more resilient growth trajectory for the domestic economy despite persistent global uncertainties and domestic structural constraints.
Beyond 2027, average economic growth for the outer years from 2028 to 2030 has also been revised upward to 3.8 per cent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3.3 per cent.
The improved forecast largely reflects the rescheduling of major construction and infrastructure projects, many of which were delayed in earlier years and are now expected to be implemented during the latter part of the projection period.The ministry notes that the upward revision does not point to an abrupt acceleration in economic activity, but rather a shift in the timing of large-scale investment projects.
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Primary sector, mixed trends
MBABANE – The outlook for the primary sector has improved compared to earlier projections.
Mining and quarrying performance benefitted from renewed demand from South Africa’s ferrochrome industry, significantly softening earlier expectations of a sharp contraction.
As a result, the subsector is now projected to record only a marginal decline rather than the steep contraction previously anticipated.
Agriculture and forestry growth has been revised upward, supported by expansion in cultivated land and expectations of improved maize output.
However, the outlook for animal production has deteriorated due to the intensification of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, which is expected to result in a significant contraction in livestock output and continued pressure on export markets.
The secondary sector has been revised downward in the short term, largely due to delays in construction activity.
Excessive rainfall and logistical challenges delayed the commencement of several major infrastructure projects, particularly in road construction and building works.
However, these same delays are now expected to support stronger growth in the medium term as projects shift into later years.
Improved water levels in dams have also supported hydro-power generation, with electricity supply projected to increase notably in 2025 and 2026.
Manufacturing prospects have been revised upward, supported by improved performance in key export-oriented industries, including sugar, textiles, forestry and miscellaneous food products.
While exchange rate movements may weigh on export receipts in the short term, the broader outlook remains positive, supported by improving external demand.
The tertiary sector continues to be the strongest contributor to economic growth, reflecting the economy’s gradual shift towards services.
Growth in the sector has been revised upward for both 2025 and 2026, driven largely by exceptional performance in information and communication services.
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