MBABANE – Sub-Saharan Africa’s median inflation rate is projected to increase from 3.7 per cent in 2025 to 5.5 per cent this year.
This comes as higher global fuel, fertiliser and food prices are expected to reverse some of the region’s recent gains.
Median inflation (such as the Median CPI) is an alternative measure of underlying or core inflation that looks at the exact middle (50th percentile) of all individual price changes in an economy’s consumer basket.
The warning is contained in the World Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update, which highlights renewed inflationary pressures at a time when economies across the region continue to face geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, fiscal constraints and declining development assistance.
The development is relevant to Eswatini, which, as part of the Southern African region, remains exposed to international movements in fuel, food and agricultural input prices.
The World Bank said the increase in inflation comes despite continued resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa, with regional economic growth projected to accelerate from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026.
The latest growth projection is 0.3 percentage points higher than the World Bank’s April 2026 forecast.
According to the report, the improved outlook is supported by stronger domestic demand, greater macroeconomic resilience and investments associated with the global energy transition and digital technologies.
However, the recovery remains vulnerable to a range of external and domestic pressures, including conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty over trade policies, tighter financial conditions, natural disasters, disease outbreaks and insecurity.
For countries such as Eswatini, the renewed inflation risk is particularly significant because international commodity price movements can feed into domestic prices, particularly through energy, transport, food production and other imported inputs.
The World Bank warned that risks to the regional economic outlook remain tilted towards weaker-than-expected performance.
A further escalation of geopolitical tensions could push commodity prices higher, increasing inflationary pressures while weakening countries’ external and fiscal positions.
Climate-related shocks also remain a concern.
The report points to the possibility of an El Niño event disrupting agricultural production and worsening food insecurity in vulnerable economies.
For Eswatini, where food and fuel prices have a direct impact on household budgets and business operating costs, developments in international commodity markets remain an important economic consideration.
Higher fuel prices can increase transport and distribution costs, while more expensive fertiliser can raise agricultural production costs and ultimately put pressure on food prices.
