It’s been a farce, believed to have passed and not a farce destined to last. No, that does not refer to the USA-Iran conflict. It’s just a little rhyme to ease the times. Though having said that, one minute you feel it’s time to relax and celebrate; then you don’t. A few days ago, we felt that the war, especially threatening the innocent of the Middle East and the poor of the world, was over.
Well, signed by the leaders of the USA and Iran, we do have a memorandum of understanding, normally known as the MoU but many would say it’s more of an ‘MO-Me’. The essence of it, however, is a significant step forward and we all hope it is going to work. A period of 60 days is allowed for ‘a roadmap to reach a final deal’ which has to meet the objectives set out in the MoU.
The weak aspect of the agreement is that the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme – especially treatment of its massive reserves of enriched uranium – is still to be negotiated. Yet that was the main reason for the USA starting the attack on Iran in the first place; and it has been pushed to the back burner! The USA say that, in the latest negotiations in Switzerland, Iran has agreed to the return of nuclear inspectors. Iran denies that.
There’s also a 60-day extendable ceasefire. The ‘extendable’ part is somewhat disturbing. Why don’t they just get real and substitute the wording ‘moveable goalposts’? Because that is a realistic view of the situation, where discussions can drag on forever with all sorts of sophisticated compromises woven into the ‘peace fabric’. Let’s capture it in one simple phrase – the hard part is about to start.
Both sides had moved into a state of desperation to find a way out. They won’t admit it and it would be very difficult to prove. You’d need an ear to the wall in the White House conference room to be able to get an honest explanation on the American side. Iran was never going to win but take a close look and you’ll see that it hasn’t surrendered.
It’s got the big boy off its back and military operations brought to a close, accompanied by the lifting of oil sanctions and the US naval blockade on Iran shipping. Above all, what is being demonstrated is that, if you can design your public statements with the support of huge semantic skills and uninhibited confidence, you can keep the public assured and settled, despite the twists and turns of a conflict such as this. Especially in a country where, if you’re a Republican at birth, you are almost certain to stay loyal till it’s time to depart this earthly life. Not surprisingly, both the USA and Iran are still claiming the higher ground.
A sting in the tail for Americans is that their government – which is the people themselves – will be paying US$300 billion to repair the Iran that they smashed up. Please enlighten me by answering an entirely innocent question – has the world gone crazy? Or is it that, in this era of the all-enveloping AI, the moral code is changing too? Well, it’s still a beautiful world and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will restore some sanity to the Middle East and more oil for the rest of the world. Let’s just hope that prices at the pump will return to the pre-March levels.
Perhaps the biggest risk to the new ceasefire is Israel. In the MoU the Israelis are required to refrain from attacking Lebanon. Yet, the Israeli leadership has already said the MoU doesn’t apply to them. Time for Trump to take Netanyahu on the golf course. Golf is a blue-chip sport that can draw peace out of conflict. In the meantime, it’s USA Vice-President, JD Vance, who is facing all the awkward questions and leading intense negotiations. Is that deliberate, to reduce his popularity ahead of the mid-term elections? He’s sharp and is already saying that peace in the Middle East is now the USA’s primary objective.
According to Vance, the USA could be Israel’s only friend in the world, so they had better behave. A bit of an exaggeration but not far from the truth. Yet when someone is outlawed, they often start to increase their flouting of the rules. After the MoU was signed, Israel was reported to have attacked Lebanon and Iran then closed the Strait again. It’s yoyo time; up and down.
The past week has been one of change, all right. The UK, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, no longer who the majority of Labour politicians want as a leader, has finally looked over his shoulder and accepted the message. A guy called Andy Burnham, a town Mayor and non-member of Parliament, has come out of the fields, won a key parliamentary by-election by a huge majority and created a strong leadership challenge within the governing Labour party. Starmer will complete his resignation in September. In the meantime, when he gets into the back seat of his car to be driven to work and the car doesn’t go anywhere, he should check whether he’s still the prime minister.
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