MBABANE – The International Monetary Fund has lowered Eswatini’s growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing a global outlook increasingly exposed to geopolitical shocks and uneven technological gains worldwide.
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), released yesterday, the IMF projects Eswatini’s economy to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, down from the 4.0 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively projected in its April 2026 outlook.
The revisions represent reductions of 0.3 percentage points for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points for 2027, signalling a more subdued outlook for the country over the next two years.
The report was released during the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings taking place in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 12 to 18.
Eswatini is represented at the meetings by Minister for Finance Neal Rijkenberg, Central Bank of Eswatini (CBE) Governor Dr Phil Mnisi, Principal Secretary (PS) in the Ministry of Finance Vusi Dlamini and other senior government officials.
On the price stability front, the IMF projects a manageable inflation outlook for Eswatini over the medium term, with consumer price growth expected to remain relatively subdued.
Following a rate of 3.1 per cent in 2025, inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 2.9 per cent in 2026 before picking up moderately to 3.2 per cent in 2027.
This trajectory positions Eswatini well below the broader Sub-Saharan African projected inflation averages of 8.6 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, as well as below the Middle-Income Countries group average of 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027.
Meanwhile, Eswatini’s external sector is projected to maintain a positive balance, contrasting with broader regional trends. The country’s current account surplus is forecast to moderate from 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 1.8 per cent in 2026, before picking up slightly to 1.9 per cent in 2027.
Meanwhile, the IMF projects global economic growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The 2026 forecast is unchanged from the April outlook, while the projection for 2027 has been revised moderately upwards.
However, the headline figures conceal significant differences between economies, with the benefits of technology-related investment and favourable commodity prices concentrated in certain countries, while others face higher import bills and weaker domestic purchasing power.
Global headline inflation is projected to rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027. The IMF attributes the temporary increase largely to higher energy and food prices, which are being affected by geopolitical tensions and disruptions to supply.
The fund warns that the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could become more severe if hostilities persist or escalate. Higher energy prices can increase the cost of production and transportation, push up consumer prices and reduce the amount of money households have available for other expenditure.
