The question implied in the title is one of the simplest measurements on record. The answer is nil. Driven by an obsessive need for imperial domination and the denial of Ukraine’s right to sovereign status, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, has no intention of signing a peace agreement that is fair. He even appears determined to avoid meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukraine leader. His engagement with America’s Donald Trump is purely cosmetic; serving to divert from reality.
Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia had simply ducked and dived its way out of responsibility for the illegal annexation in 2014 of Crimea, which is a bulbous peninsula within the south of Ukraine. The world did little beyond dropping in a few sanctions. However, nothing that upset Russia. Then, in January 2022, Putin launched a flat-out invasion of Ukraine and now has 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory.
The obsession for achieving this and sustaining attacks on the rest of Ukraine to consume that as well, has given rise to an appalling number of deaths. Hundreds of thousands of fatalities on both sides, whether defenders and innocent bystanders on the Ukraine side or Russian men and women, very few of whom would have had any interest in conquering another country.
Of course, the latter group were deceived into believing that the Ukrainians were a bunch of Nazis and a real danger to the Russian people. That was simply not true. You’re in Russia and you say that? You’re in big trouble. What kind of country is that now! Five years ago, we had no problem with the Russians. After the Crimea annexation in 2014, it was a, somewhat, cautious view, but one that worked. We got on with them, welcomed them to our countries and played them at sport. Today, they are seen as a people who have complied with the aims of leaders who effectively ripped into shreds any accepted standards of decent human behaviour. The leadership delivering this ruthless onslaught are behaving no better than inhabitants of the jungle. Now it will take a long time before the world – especially Ukraine – will forgive the Russians for what they’ve done.
In my opinion only – and circumstances can change at any moment – all this optimistic political rhetoric about the prospects of peace from forthcoming discussions is ‘pie in the sky’. Little has changed materially since ‘Biding Time’ (Joe Biden’s declining administration). Ukraine will not readily give up the 20 per cent of its land taken by Russia and Russia won’t give it back. Also, it is quite possible that the obsession to restore the former USSR (the Soviet Union), self-destructively ending in late 1991, will not die away. When the mind de-functionalises in that manner, the loss of human lives matters nothing compared with the drive to restore an outdated and unworkable regime like the USSR. The Russian leadership wants victory. Perhaps, even beyond Ukraine.
I may, of course, be wrong and my opinion is of no influence anyway. Certain politicians are dressing up their strategies within a maze of optimistic sophistry, but the simple fact is – how can Putin turn to the Russian people and say: “Sorry about losing your sons and daughters in all that fighting against Ukraine. We thought we could knock it on the head and take over their country. However, we miscalculated, not thinking that the USA and its minor European teammates in NATO would throw in a lot of defensive support for the Ukrainians. So, in order to stop the rot, otherwise known in the military as ‘Order! Counter-order! Disorder!’ we’re now giving back to Ukraine the 20 per cent that we conquered in 2022.”
Forget it. Putin and his oligarchs would then have to run for the Gobi desert and look for refuge, rather more substantial than a few cactus plants.
At present, Russia will only consider peace if Ukraine is prepared to agree to a settlement that not only gives one fifth of the country to the perpetrators of an illegal invasion, but would also compound the failure to stop Russia at the start of the process in 2014 when they took the Crimea portion of Ukraine. A clever scheme that was effectively an undercover military operation made to look like an internal revolution that achieved the majority wishes of the Crimean people.
So you have what is known as an ‘impasse’, which is similar to the word ‘rendezvous’, being two of many French words adopted by English speakers, as preferred to any other word of the same meaning in their own language. An impasse is a deadlock. The only way to achieve a quick and sustainable ceasefire is for the Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy to concede to Russia the 20 per cent already in its possession, plus additional Ukraine land claimed by the Russians, promise that Ukraine will not join NATO and agree not to allow NATO forces to be established on Ukraine’s borders. What? Do something he could have offered in January 2022 when Russia stepped onto Ukrainian territory? Again, I say, forget it.
Perhaps, the only option for a prompt peace would be for Zelenskyy to organise a very quick, but fair and trustworthy, referendum to ask the Ukrainian people: ‘‘What do you want me to do? Especially, do I concede on the above four issues?’’ If they vote ‘yes’ to them, Ukraine will have peace. Simple, but not easy.
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